COMMODITIES TO WATCH MCX Gold Dec

MCX Gold Dec CMP— Rs 26768.00
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

After the  sharp  correction  from  the  all  time  highs  of  Rs 28744  levels,  the  price  of  Gold  have  been  rading  in  an extremely  narrow  range  over  the  past  2-3  weeks  of  trade.  But  the  prices  have  been  taking  support  at  its  key moving average clusters on every correction. It has also closed at its 34 day EMA during the previous session. We believe that a sustained break above the Rs 26800 levels will see the price of gold breaking out of this trading range and thus test levels of Rs 26950 / Rs 27140 levels.

We recommend traders to take long positions above Rs 26800 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 26663 levels for upside targets of mentioned above.

NCDEX PEPPER Nov Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The  price  of  pepper  witnessed  a  strong  rally  from  the  lows  of  Rs 27900  levels  to  register  an  all
time high of Rs 37190 levels. Since then the price of pepper have been trading in a narrow range. But,  the  key  observation  to  be  made  on  the  chart  above  is  the  formation  of  a  bearish  Head  & shoulder  price  pattern  with  a  declining  neckline  support  within  this  trading  range.  Traders would note that the formation of this pattern is an extremely bearish sign and can lead to severe correction in the future price movements of an index/stock/commodity. The neckline support for the  said  pattern  in  placed  at  the  Rs 34800  levels.  We  believe  that  the  price  can  correct  to  its neckline  support  levels  in  the  near  future.  Also,  a  sustained  breakdown  below  this  neckline support  will lead to an  increase in  supply pressure and this could open up downside targets of Rs 33800 levels.

Another  technical  factor  that  confirms  the  bearishness  depicted  by  the  price  action  is  the  sell
signal given by the RSI indicator backed by a negative divergence.

We recommend traders to sell below Rs 35300 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 35897 levels for downside targets of Rs 34750 / Rs 33800 levels.

COMMODITIES TO WATCH 14th Oct

NCDEX Soya Oil Ref Nov CMP—Rs 594.65

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of Soya Oil ref witnessed a pullback from oversold levels during the past 2-3 sessions of trade. The fall witnessed during the previous sessions has led to the formation of a 2-bar bearish reversal pattern on the daily charts. This is a sign that the price can now test is recent lows. The momentum indicators continue to trade in bearish mode despite the recent pullbacks.

We recommend traders to take short positions between Rs 593.90--Rs 596 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 599.40 levels for downside targets of Rs588 / Rs 582 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 3-4 sessions of trade.

MCX ALUMINIUM OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The levels between Rs 105 to Rs 112.50 have been the broad trading range for the price of aluminium for the past few sessions of trade. But, the key observation to be made on the chart above is the formation of a bearish Head & shoulder price pattern within this trading range.

Traders would note that the formation of this pattern is an extremely bearish sign and can lead to severe correction in the future price movements of an index/stock/commodity. The neckline support for the said pattern in placed at the Rs 106 levels. We believe that the price can correct to its neckline support levels in the near future.

Another technical factor that confirms the bearishness depicted by the price action is the sell
signal given by the RSI indicator backed by a negative divergence.


We recommend traders to sell below Rs 107.35 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 108.85 levels
for downside targets of Rs 106 / Rs 104.75 levels.

COMMODITIES TO WATCH 11th Oct

NCDEX KAPASRNR Apr2012 CMP—Rs 732.80

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

After the sharp correction from the highs of 780.80 levels, the price of Kapas had been consolidating within a
narrow range of Rs 739.50 to Rs 719 levels. But, the price action of Kapas within this consolidation range has taken the shape of a bullish inverted head & shoulders price pattern. Traders would note that this is an extremely bullish price pattern and is a sign that the price of Kapas will trade with a positive bias for the upcoming few sessions of trade.

We recommend traders to take Long positions between Rs 735--Rs 730 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 717.40 levels for upside targets of Rs 750 / Rs 775 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 4-5 sessions of trade.

MCX LEAD OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The price of Lead has been consolidating between Rs 100.50 to Rs 94.50 levels over the past few sessions of trade. The price was also facing stiff resistance at its 8-day moving average on pullbacks. But, the smart move witnessed during the previous session of trade has helped the price of lead to register a close above its key near term moving average. This is a sign that the prices of lead are going to trade with a positive bias and thus test levels of Rs 99.50 and / or Rs101.25 levels.

Strong surge in volumes and a fresh buy signal given by the MACD indicator support the bullish price action mentioned above.

We recommend traders to buy between Rs 97.50--Rs 98.25 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 96.40 levels for upside targets of Rs 99.75 / Rs 101.25 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 3-4 sessions of trade.

COMMODITIES TO WATCH 10 Oct

 NCDEX Pepper Oct CMP—Rs 36100.00


Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

We reiterate our bullish bias on the price of pepper. As mentioned in our previous note the price of pepper was
consolidating in a narrow trading range over the past few sessions of trade, since it corrected from its all time
highs. The key moving average clusters have been providing good support for the price of pepper. The
momentum indicators continue to trade in buy mode despite the recent correction.
We recommend day / positional traders to take Long positions between Rs 36040-- Rs 36200 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 35620 levels for upside targets of Rs 36780 / Rs 370000 levels.

NCDEX JEERA OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The price of Jeera witnessed a sharp correction during the previous week. This steep fall took the indicators into extremely oversold zone. The key observation to be made is the 3-bar reversal candlestick pattern as highlighted in the chart above. Also, the RSI indicator has come out of the oversold zone indicating that the prices could now pullback from lower levels and in the process test its key moving average clusters placed around the Rs 15000—Rs15150 price zones.

Hence, the current technical setup suggests that the prices of Jeera can trade in pullback mode.

We recommend traders to buy between Rs 14760--Rs14660 levels with a stop loss placed below `14509 levels for upside targets of Rs15000 / Rs15150 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 2-3 sessions of trade.

MCX Pepper Oct CMP—Rs 35840.00

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

We reiterate our bullish bias on the price of pepper. As mentioned in our previous note the price of pepper was consolidating in a narrow trading range over the past few sessions of trade, since it corrected from its all time highs.

The key moving average clusters have been providing good support for the price of pepper.

The momentum indicators continue to trade in buy mode despite the recent correction.

We recommend day / positional traders to take Long positions on a break above Rs 36200 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 35620 levels for upside targets of Rs 36780 / Rs 370000 levels.

MCX ZINC OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The price of Zinc has been trading in a narrow range of Rs 90 to Rs 93.80 levels since it witnessed a sharp correction from the highs of Rs 105.15 levels as on 13th Sep, 2011.

But the most important observation to be made on the charts of Zinc is the positive divergence displayed by the RSI indicator.

It signals that the downward movement of the price could have lost force and in all
likelihood this can lead to some kind of an advance.

Hence, the current technical setup suggests that a sustained break above the 8 day moving average placed at the Rs 93 levels will see the price of zinc testing levels of Rs 95.60 and/or Rs 97.50 levels on the upside.

We recommend traders to buy on a break above Rs 93 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 91.45 levels for upside targets of Rs 95.60 / Rs 97.50 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 3- 4 sessions of trade.

MCX ZINC OCT. CONTRACT OPEN Rs 92.40 HIGH Rs 92.75 LOW Rs 90.75 CLOSE Rs 92.50

MCX Pepper Oct CMP—Rs 36005.00

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

The price of pepper was consolidating in a narrow trading range over the past few sessions of trade, since it corrected from its all time highs.

The key moving average clusters have been providing good support for the price of pepper.

The price witnessed a smart upmove during the previous sessions of trade and closed above this narrow trading range.

The momentum indicators continue to trade in buy mode despite the recent correction.
We recommend day / positional traders to take Long positions on a break above Rs 36200 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 35620 levels for upside targets of Rs 36780 / Rs 370000 levels.

NCDEX JEERA OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The price of Jeera has been trending up for the past few years. Every correction from higher levels has been taking support at the rising trendline.

But, the first bearish signal arose when the recent rally that began from the trendline support could only register a lower top of Rs 16948 levels as on 24th June, 2011.

The recent sell-off from the highs mentioned above has dragged the prices below its moving average clusters support.

This could see the price of Jeera correcting towards levels of Rs 14240 / Rs 13970. The MACD indicator has given a fresh sell signal backed by a negative divergence.

We recommend traders to sell between Rs 14550--Rs 14430 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 14773 levels for down targets of Rs 14240 / Rs 13970 levels expected to be chieved over the upcoming 3-4 sessions of trade.

MCX Crude Oct CMP—Rs 3835.00

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

We reiterate our bearish outlook on the price of crude. As mentioned in the previous update the price action of crude since 24th Aug, 2011 has been taking shape of a bearish Head & shoulders pattern on its daily charts.

The price has now approached its neckline support levels placed around the Rs 3820--Rs 3800 levels.

Sustenance below these levels will lead to severe corrections in the prices of crude oil.

We recommend day / positional traders to take short positions between Rs 3850--Rs 3790 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 3889 levels for downside targets of Rs 3740 / Rs 3700 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 2-3 sessions of trade.

NCDEX CHANA OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The price of Chana fell sharply from the highs of Rs 3700 levels during the last week.

The correction took the price its key support levels established by the Fibonacci retracements and moving average clusters.

One can clearly see from the chart above, that the price gave a smart bounce from these support levels and this led to the formation of a two bar bullish reversal pattern on the daily charts of Chana.

These technical factors suggest that the price of Chana is likely to give a pullback and thus test levels of Rs 3275 / Rs 3355 levels over the upcoming week.

We recommend traders to buy 50% between Rs 3200--Rs 3180 levels and 50% on dips between Rs 3139--Rs 3120 levels with a stop loss placed below Rs 3089 levels for upside targets of Rs 3275 / Rs 3355 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 3-4 sessions of trade.

MCX Crude Oct CMP—Rs 3933.00

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

The price action of crude since 24th Aug, 2011 has been taking shape of a bearish Head & shoulders pattern on its daily charts.

This is an extremely bearish price pattern and signifies distribution and can lead to severe correction in the price of an index/stock or a commodity.

The prices have been trading below its key moving average clusters and the momentum indicators have been trading in sell mode.

We recommend day / positional traders to take short positions between Rs 3920--Rs 3950 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 3993 levels for downside targets of Rs 3875 / Rs 3840 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 2-3 sessions of trade.

MCX NICKEL OCT Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy

The price of Nickel has been in a downtrend since it started correcting from the highs of Rs 1327 levels as on 21st Feb, 2011.

As outlined in the chart above, the prices have been facing supply pressure at the downtrend line resistance.

After the sharp fall witnessed during the past week the prices were trading in a narrow range.

It, has now registered a Reverse pennant / Bearish Flag pattern breakdown as shown in the chart above.

The Bearish/ Reverse flag pattern breakdown is a continuation pattern and suggests that Index / stock or the commodity prices will continue with its downtrend and move down further after consolidating for a few sessions of trade.

The momentum indicators continue to trade in sell mode despite the recent pullback from lower levels.

We recommend traders to sell between Rs 880--Rs 870 levels with a stop loss placed above Rs 899.40 levels for downside targets of Rs 848 / Rs 827 levels expected to be achieved over the upcoming 3-4 sessions of trade.