Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of Mustard seed has been on a decline since it registered a high of Rs 2912 levels as on 22nd June, 2011 levels.
Since then it has been taking support at its downward sloping trend line support on its intraday charts.
A breakdown from this downwards sloping trend line is likely to have negative implications for the price.
The price has also closed below its key moving average clusters on the daily charts and the indicators are also trading in bearish mode.
Traders can look to sell on a break below Rs 2840 levels with a stop loss of Rs 2869 levels for downside targets of Rs 2810 / Rs 2790 levels.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
NCDEX Turmeric July CMP—Rs 7510.00
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of turmeric witnessed a smart up move towards the Rs 7950 levels once it registered a breakout above the upward sloping trend line resistance placed at the Rs 7410 levels on 24th June, 2011.
The price of turmeric has now given a pullback to towards these levels and we believe that the price will take support between the Rs 7410—Rs 7375 levels.
The recent pullback from the highs of Rs 7950 levels was also on the back of declining volume which clearly suggests that the price weren’t under any real supply pressure.
Traders can look to buy on dips between Rs 7430--Rs 7375 levels with a stop loss of Rs 7297 levels for upside targets of Rs 7650 / Rs 7950 levels.
The price of turmeric witnessed a smart up move towards the Rs 7950 levels once it registered a breakout above the upward sloping trend line resistance placed at the Rs 7410 levels on 24th June, 2011.
The price of turmeric has now given a pullback to towards these levels and we believe that the price will take support between the Rs 7410—Rs 7375 levels.
The recent pullback from the highs of Rs 7950 levels was also on the back of declining volume which clearly suggests that the price weren’t under any real supply pressure.
Traders can look to buy on dips between Rs 7430--Rs 7375 levels with a stop loss of Rs 7297 levels for upside targets of Rs 7650 / Rs 7950 levels.
MCX ALUMINIUM June Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy
The price of Aluminium witnessed a sharp correction from the highs of Rs 120.35 levels as on 01st
June, 2011 to register a low of Rs 110.90 levels as on 27th June, 2011.Since then the price of
aluminum have been trading in a broad range of Rs 112.65—Rs 111 levels.
But, the key observation to be made is that the price pattern of Aluminium within this broad trading range has taken shape of an Inverted head and shoulder price pattern on the intraday charts.
The Neckline resistance for the said pattern is placed at the Rs 112.65 levels. Upside targets of Rs 113.70 / Rs 114.50 levels can be seen in this counter once the price breaks above the neckline resistance level mentioned above.
Some of the other positive technical factors are that the price of aluminum has also closed above its key moving average clusters and the RSI indicator is also come out of the oversold territory backed by a positive divergence.
We recommend traders to buy on a break above Rs 112.65 levels for the above mentioned upside
targets. A stop loss of Rs 111.55 levels should be maintained on all long positions.
June, 2011 to register a low of Rs 110.90 levels as on 27th June, 2011.Since then the price of
aluminum have been trading in a broad range of Rs 112.65—Rs 111 levels.
But, the key observation to be made is that the price pattern of Aluminium within this broad trading range has taken shape of an Inverted head and shoulder price pattern on the intraday charts.
The Neckline resistance for the said pattern is placed at the Rs 112.65 levels. Upside targets of Rs 113.70 / Rs 114.50 levels can be seen in this counter once the price breaks above the neckline resistance level mentioned above.
Some of the other positive technical factors are that the price of aluminum has also closed above its key moving average clusters and the RSI indicator is also come out of the oversold territory backed by a positive divergence.
We recommend traders to buy on a break above Rs 112.65 levels for the above mentioned upside
targets. A stop loss of Rs 111.55 levels should be maintained on all long positions.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
MCX Crude Oil July CMP—`4097.00
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of crude oil has been consistently bouncing from the Rs 4075—Rs 4060 levels over the past few sessions of trade.
This price zones have now become strong support zones for the prices of crude oil.
The key indicators have been gradually coming out of the oversold territory. Hence, we expect the price of crude oil to pullback from current levels and thus test the Rs 4170 levels on the upside in the near term.
Traders can look to buy on dips to Rs 4075--Rs 4060 levels with a stop loss of Rs 4039 levels for the above mentioned targets.
The price of crude oil has been consistently bouncing from the Rs 4075—Rs 4060 levels over the past few sessions of trade.
This price zones have now become strong support zones for the prices of crude oil.
The key indicators have been gradually coming out of the oversold territory. Hence, we expect the price of crude oil to pullback from current levels and thus test the Rs 4170 levels on the upside in the near term.
Traders can look to buy on dips to Rs 4075--Rs 4060 levels with a stop loss of Rs 4039 levels for the above mentioned targets.
MCX NICKEL June Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy
The price of nickel has gone through a sharp correction since it registered a high of Rs 1327.80
levels on 21st Feb, 2011.
But, the prices of nickel witnessed a smart recovery from the lows of Rs 964.30 levels to close at the Rs 1002.60 levels over a span of 3-4 sessions.
We would like to point out that the prices of nickel has strong support between the Rs 973—Rs 960 levels.
The MACD indicator has also given a fresh buy signal backed by a positive divergence which is also a positive sign for the future price movements of nickel.
We expect the price of nickel to test its short term moving averages placed at the Rs 1020 levels over the upcoming sessions.
We recommend buying between Rs 1006 -- Rs 990 levels with a stop placed below Rs 982.70 levels for an initial target of Rs 1020 – and Rs 1040 levels. (On a close above the 1020 levels) MCX NICKEL JUNE CONTRACTOPEN Rs 996 HIGH Rs 1004 LOW Rs 984.70 CLOSE Rs 1002.60.
levels on 21st Feb, 2011.
But, the prices of nickel witnessed a smart recovery from the lows of Rs 964.30 levels to close at the Rs 1002.60 levels over a span of 3-4 sessions.
We would like to point out that the prices of nickel has strong support between the Rs 973—Rs 960 levels.
The MACD indicator has also given a fresh buy signal backed by a positive divergence which is also a positive sign for the future price movements of nickel.
We expect the price of nickel to test its short term moving averages placed at the Rs 1020 levels over the upcoming sessions.
We recommend buying between Rs 1006 -- Rs 990 levels with a stop placed below Rs 982.70 levels for an initial target of Rs 1020 – and Rs 1040 levels. (On a close above the 1020 levels) MCX NICKEL JUNE CONTRACTOPEN Rs 996 HIGH Rs 1004 LOW Rs 984.70 CLOSE Rs 1002.60.
Monday, June 27, 2011
MCX Natural Gas July CMP - Rs191.00
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
We reiterate our bearish outlook on the price of Natural gas. The price of Natural Gas witnessed a sharp sell- off from the highs of Rs 223.50 levels as on 09th June, 2011.
The price of Natural Gas has also closed below the lower end of the rising channel on the daily charts which had been forming since 04th Mar, 2011.
This is a very bearish signal since this lower end of the rising channel had been providing good support for the price of Natural gas on corrections.
The indicators at present are extremely oversold and we expect the prices to pull back towards the Rs 192—Rs 193.50 levels.
Traders can look to sell on pullbacks between Rs 192--Rs 194 levels with a stop loss of Rs 195.90 levels for downside targets of Rs 188 / Rs 185 levels.
We reiterate our bearish outlook on the price of Natural gas. The price of Natural Gas witnessed a sharp sell- off from the highs of Rs 223.50 levels as on 09th June, 2011.
The price of Natural Gas has also closed below the lower end of the rising channel on the daily charts which had been forming since 04th Mar, 2011.
This is a very bearish signal since this lower end of the rising channel had been providing good support for the price of Natural gas on corrections.
The indicators at present are extremely oversold and we expect the prices to pull back towards the Rs 192—Rs 193.50 levels.
Traders can look to sell on pullbacks between Rs 192--Rs 194 levels with a stop loss of Rs 195.90 levels for downside targets of Rs 188 / Rs 185 levels.
NCDEX Mustard Seed July CMP—Rs 2888.00
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of Mustard Seed witnessed a smart up move during the previous session.
The price had taken good support between the Rs 2866—Rs 2870 levels and has made a triple bottom at these levels.
The key momentumindicators are also trading in bullish mode. We expect the price to move upwards and test levels of Rs 2915 / Rs 2930levels in the near term.
Traders can look to buy between Rs 2892--Rs 2880 levels with a stop loss of Rs 2859 levels for the above mentioned targets.
The price of Mustard Seed witnessed a smart up move during the previous session.
The price had taken good support between the Rs 2866—Rs 2870 levels and has made a triple bottom at these levels.
The key momentumindicators are also trading in bullish mode. We expect the price to move upwards and test levels of Rs 2915 / Rs 2930levels in the near term.
Traders can look to buy between Rs 2892--Rs 2880 levels with a stop loss of Rs 2859 levels for the above mentioned targets.
NCDEX JEERA July Contract – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy
The price of Jeera have been on a consistent downtrend since it hit a high of Rs 17520 levels as on
01st Mar, 2011 to register a low of Rs 13120 17th June, 2011.
But, the key observation to be made is that the price of Jeera has given a breakout above its downtrend line as shown in the chart above.
Another key observation to be made on the charts is that the up move seen over the past
few sessions was on the back of robust volumes which indicates buying interest in the counter.
The Prices of Jeera have also closed above its near term and short term moving averages which
is also a sign of strength in the counter.
The MACD indicator has also given a fresh buy signal.All of the above technical evidence is suggesting a trend reversal.
We recommend buying at current levels and again on dips to Rs 14000 -- Rs 13875 levels with a stop
placed below Rs 13777 for an initial target of Rs 14625 -- Rs 14850 in the coming sessions.
01st Mar, 2011 to register a low of Rs 13120 17th June, 2011.
But, the key observation to be made is that the price of Jeera has given a breakout above its downtrend line as shown in the chart above.
Another key observation to be made on the charts is that the up move seen over the past
few sessions was on the back of robust volumes which indicates buying interest in the counter.
The Prices of Jeera have also closed above its near term and short term moving averages which
is also a sign of strength in the counter.
The MACD indicator has also given a fresh buy signal.All of the above technical evidence is suggesting a trend reversal.
We recommend buying at current levels and again on dips to Rs 14000 -- Rs 13875 levels with a stop
placed below Rs 13777 for an initial target of Rs 14625 -- Rs 14850 in the coming sessions.
Friday, June 24, 2011
MCX Natural Gas June CMP—Rs 188.90
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of Natural Gas witnessed a sharp sell- off from the highs of Rs 223.50 levels as on 09th June, 2011.
The key observation to be made is that the price of Natural Gas has closed below the lower end of the rising channel on the daily charts which had been forming since 04th Mar, 2011.
This is a very bearish signal since this lower end of the rising channel had been providing good support for the price of Natural gas on corrections.
The indicators at present are extremely oversold and we expect the prices to pull back towards the Rs 192 levels.
Traders can look to sell on pullbacks between Rs 191.50--Rs 193 levels with a stop loss of Rs 195.75 levels for downside targets of Rs 188 / Rs 185 levels.
The price of Natural Gas witnessed a sharp sell- off from the highs of Rs 223.50 levels as on 09th June, 2011.
The key observation to be made is that the price of Natural Gas has closed below the lower end of the rising channel on the daily charts which had been forming since 04th Mar, 2011.
This is a very bearish signal since this lower end of the rising channel had been providing good support for the price of Natural gas on corrections.
The indicators at present are extremely oversold and we expect the prices to pull back towards the Rs 192 levels.
Traders can look to sell on pullbacks between Rs 191.50--Rs 193 levels with a stop loss of Rs 195.75 levels for downside targets of Rs 188 / Rs 185 levels.
MCX Aluminium June – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy
The key observation to be made on the price chart of Aluminium is that the price movement of
this base metal since 28th Jan, 2011 has taken shape of a bearish Head & shoulders pattern.
TheHead & shoulders pattern has severe negative implication on the future price movement of a
stock/ index/ commodity price.
The neckline support for the said pattern is placed at the Rs 111.90 levels. A break below this level will lead to an increase in supply and the price of aluminum could then test the levels of Rs 110.25 / Rs 109 levels in the near term.
Some of the other technical factors that support the bearish argument outlined above are that the price have closed below its 200 DMA during the previous session and the MACD indicator has also given a sell signal backed by a negative divergence.
We recommend traders to sell on a break below Rs 111.90 levels with a stop loss of Rs 113.55 levels for the above mentioned near term price targets.
this base metal since 28th Jan, 2011 has taken shape of a bearish Head & shoulders pattern.
TheHead & shoulders pattern has severe negative implication on the future price movement of a
stock/ index/ commodity price.
The neckline support for the said pattern is placed at the Rs 111.90 levels. A break below this level will lead to an increase in supply and the price of aluminum could then test the levels of Rs 110.25 / Rs 109 levels in the near term.
Some of the other technical factors that support the bearish argument outlined above are that the price have closed below its 200 DMA during the previous session and the MACD indicator has also given a sell signal backed by a negative divergence.
We recommend traders to sell on a break below Rs 111.90 levels with a stop loss of Rs 113.55 levels for the above mentioned near term price targets.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
MCX Aluminium June CMP - Rs 113.50
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of Aluminium appears to be forming a head and shoulder pattern on the daily charts.
The head and shoulders pattern is an extremely bearish pattern and has negative implications on the future price movements of a stock.
A break below the near term support of Rs 112.50 levels on the intraday charts will see the price of Aluminium head towards the neckline support of Rs 111.70 levels in the near term.
A close below this neckline support will see an increase in the selling pressure which could drag the price to Rs 107.50 levels.
Traders can add to short positions on the break below the neckline support levels mentioned above.
A stop loss of Rs 113.75 levels have to be maintained on all the short positions taken below 112.50 levels.
MCX Mentha Oil June CMP—`837.80
Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-
The price of Mentha Oil opened with a falling gap during yesterday’s session.
Thereafter the price kept moving southwards throughout the session on the back of strong surge in volumes.
Moreover, the price has also closed below its key support zone of Rs 842—Rs 840 zone on the intraday charts.
The key momentum indicators are also displaying weakness in the counter.
Traders can look to sell between Rs 842--Rs 834.50 levels with a stop loss of Rs 851.75 levels for downside targets of Rs820 / Rs 810 levels.
NCDEX Turmeric July – Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy
The price of Turmeric has been trading within broad ranges of Rs 7400 to Rs 7150 levels after it corrected from a high of Rs 10618 levels as on 08th Apr, 2011.
The key observation to be made is that the price of Turmeric has taken shape of an Inverted head and shoulder price pattern on the intraday charts.
The Neckline resistance for the said pattern is placed at the Rs 7400 levels. Upside targets of Rs 7500 / Rs 7625 levels can be seen in this counter once the price breaks above the neckline resistance level mentioned above.
Some of the other positive technical factors are that the price of turmeric has also closed above its key moving average clusters and the MACD indicator is also trading in bullish mode.
We recommend traders to buy on a break above Rs 7400 levels and again on dips to Rs 7340—Rs 7290 levels for the above mentioned upside targets.
A stop loss of Rs 7159 levels should be maintained on all long positions.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Intraday Calls, Share Recommendations SMS, Share Market Recommendations, Accurate Stock, Intraday Trading, Stock Market, Equity Advises, MCX NCDEX
The commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products like wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, on the back of standard instruments in the 19th century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quite recently in most markets.
Later due to the economic impact, the development of commodity markets the exchanges were established, and this paved the way to expanded interstate and international trade.
The Base metals like Copper, Nickel, Zinc and Aluminium.
Energy Products like Crude Oil and Natural Gas and Precious metals like Gold & silver are widely traded in the modern commodity exchanges across the world.
Key stats of Global Commodity Markets
| Till the year - 2010 |
|
| Volume (contracts traded) | 2.5 billion million |
| Commodity Asset Under Mgt. | $380 billion |
Commodities Market – An Indian perspective
Along with the global commodities markets the Indian markets have also thrown open a new avenue for retail investors and traders to trade in commodity derivatives.
This now provides an investor to diversify his portfolios beyond shares, bonds and real estate.
It was very difficult for retail investors to actually invest in commodities such as gold and silver or oilseeds in the futures market.
This was nearly impossible in commodities except for gold and silver as there was practically no retail avenue for punting in commodities.
However, with the setting up of three multi-commodity exchanges in the country, retail investors can now trade in commodity futures and derivatives.
Commodities actually offer immense potential to become a separate asset class for market-savvy investors, arbitrageurs and speculators.
Retail investors, who the equity markets may find commodities an immeasurable market.
But commodities are easy to understand as far as fundamentals of demand and supply are concerned. Retail investors should understand the risks and advantages of trading in commodities futures before taking a leap.
This market provides an efficient portfolio diversification option since pricing in commodities futures has been less volatile compared to other markets.
Let us now try an understand the prevailing Commodities Market Structure
We will look into the Commodity Eco system and go in detail into the Indian Commodity Markets in our Next Article.
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